Saturday, January 21, 2017

No comments:
Marching through January

WHY COOLER PACIFIC WATERS BRING LESS SNOWY WINTERS, AND WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF A "SNOW DAY" THIS SEASON?


6:00 AM 1/21 - In stark contrast to last year at this time, skiers, students and snow lovers alike face another week to 10 days of non-winter conditions, as a March-like pattern has temporarily replaced traditional January weather. The NOAA 6-10 day temperature outlook below shows no help in sight for those yearning to see just one little snow day. But alas Powderhounds, all is not lost. Looking ahead, there is hope in the red letters.

WHERE DID THE SNOW GO? One year ago, the region was buried under the largest snowstorm in decades, courtesy of an equally powerful El Nino-fueled transport of Pacific moisture. Now, it's the hazy, sullen, fog-filled days that result from the wishy-washy influence of cooler-than-normal east Pacific waters. (Relive the storm in our posts leading up the storm: Tue 1/19, Wed 1/20. Thu 1/21, Fri 1/22. The comments also a fun look back.)

For the normal snow addict, It's a very strange and frustrating pattern indeed but one we have come to expect would happen. We are all dealing with the consequences of the old rule that "what goes up" (the 2016 El Nino of +2.3 C) has turned into the "must come down" Nina of -0.5 C). 

THE SHORT ANSWER is simply that when sea surface temperatures of the East Pacific start the winter at a level slightly cooler than normal, this influences the overall pattern in adjacent land surfaces. The climate cannot support the west AND east BOTH being cold at the same time, so if they get it first, we get the scraps. If you want snow, you're on the wrong side of the coast right now!


SO, THE NEXT SNOW DAY IS...? The most efficient way to access our specific projections is to join the Insiders for 2017. You get straight-on reports without fluff or social media distraction, specialized alerts and early AM update via the Insider App, plus text notifications before / during major events. It's a lot of valuable info for a very nominal fee and it's one way of supporting our operations. Image left: Results of all those calories we all burned last winter, captured in this reader photo from College Park, MD


Friday, January 13, 2017

5 comments:
Wintry Weekend Ahead
  • NWS FORECASTS AND COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC FROM EARLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
  • SIGNIFICANT TO MAJOR ICE STORM IS LIKELY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH SUNDAY.

Light freezing rain in the daybreak hours of Sunday, January 18, 2015 led to this 20-car pileup in New York City and hundreds of other precipitation-related accidents throughout the region. Image credit: New York Post.

Widespread ice storm expected from Midwest to southern Plains



Projected U.S. surface map for 7 AM EST Saturday by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center shows a large area of potential ice accretion is possible to likely from northern Texas through the southern Great Lakes states to the Mid-Atlantic. 


  • READERS MAY RECALL IN 2015, ON THE SUNDAY BEFORE MARTIN LUTHER KING DAY, A RELATIVELY MINOR GLAZING OF ICE (LESS THAN 0.01") CAUSED SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR FROM WASHINGTON TO NEW YORK. (Example: 1/18/15 articles by WTOP and New York Post.)
  • HOURLY FORECAST CHART FOR BEL AIR, MD IS A REPRESENTATIVE LOCATION FOR PROJECTED PRECIPITATION HAZARDS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. PAST EVENT SHOW THAT EVEN LOW PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WHERE ROADS ARE UNTREATED. 



Projected surface map for 7 AM ET Saturday 1/14



Saturday, January 7, 2017

Southern Storms & Northern Air

6 comments:
Southern Storms & Northern Air
  • HEAVY SNOW FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO EASTERN VIRGINIA,  THE VA/MD EASTERN SHORE AND SOUTHERN MD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY, 6" OR MORE IN MANY AREAS SOUTH OF DOVER, DE TO ST. MARY'S MD TO RICHMOND AND NORFOLK. See Wakefield VA NWS 1/7 Snow Briefing
  • FROM DC METRO NORTH TO BALTIMORE AND PHILADELPHIA, DRY AIR ON A NORTH WIND HAS BEEN IMPEDING SATURATION OF AIR, DELAYING ONSET OF SNOW UNTIL MID-MORNING SATURDAY. 
  • AREAS WHERE SNOWFALL HAS BEEN DELAYED BY DRY AIR CAN EXPECT UP TO 1 INCH BEFORE SYSTEM BEGINS PULLING NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
  • ROGUE BANDS OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN & EASTERN PA MAY PRODUCE AN UNEXPECTED 1 INCH OR MORE ON SATURDAY .




NWS WINTER WEATHER MAP SUITE
To locate these resources, click on your local NWS office site and scroll down to the icon titled "Winter Weather" that looks like this image.



CENTRAL & SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA

BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON REGION

SOUTHEAST PA & DELMARVA PENINSULA

EASTERN VIRGINIA TO NORTH CAROLINA