Tuesday, March 7, 2017

You may fire when ready

2 comments:
"You may fire when ready."
- Grand Moff Tarkin, Star Wars

  • ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR LATE THIS WEEK TO PRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR AN INTERIOR & COASTAL SYSTEM WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW BY THE WEEKEND FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC.
  • POSITIONING OF A HIGH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA AND A LOW IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY POINTS TO A CLASSIC "COLD AIR DAMMING" SCENARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING.
  • DESPITE MILD CONDITIONS WED-THU, COLD AIR THU-SAT, OVERNIGHT ONSET AND AMPLE MOISTURE INCREASE PROBABILITY OF SNOW OVER RAIN.  

4:30 AM 3/7 - Although Princess Leia's famous opening line of "...only you could be so bold" in Star Wars Episode IV was directed at Darth Vader, the brashness of the situation is similar. Known for unorthodox, brash and persecuting methods -- Vader and Governor Tarkin are the analogy we select to describe this upcoming potential winter weather assault.

Friday, February 24, 2017

She drives me crazy

3 comments:
"She Drives Me Crazy." - Part 2
-Fine Young Cannibals, 1989
  • La Nina: The main source of your weather frustration due to inconsistency of patterns this season. Why? Lack of a strong signal from multiple factors (Weak polar air, limited moisture transport from oceans, reduced snow cover) produces the type of erratic outcomes we have seen in 2016-17.
  • Are we done? Probably not. Potential is rising for a resurgent period of significantly colder air in the eastern U.S. from March 3 through 15. Several clippers in this period would have favorable conditions to produce snowfall, including ample moisture and overnight freezing temperatures enabling accumulation.
  • Hope for the future: NOAA Climate models are pointing to rising  chance of a weak El Nino by this coming Fall, with some similarities to the 2002-03 episode that produced a snowy winter in the East. Until then, the temperature trends are one reason why the current La Nina pattern drives us crazy -- see below for the flip flop that's coming in the next 2 weeks.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH FRI 3/3
(Red is above normal, Blue is below normal)


TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH FRI 3/10


Tuesday, February 7, 2017

So you're telling me there's a chance...

13 comments:
"So you're telling me there's a chance?"
-Jim Carrey in 1994's Dumb & Dumber

Rising potential for a brief, heavy accumulating snow event 
in the eastern Mid-Atlantic starting early Thursday morning.

CURRENT NWS WINTER STORM WATCHES & WARNINGS 



  • Yes, we know it's warm, that's the issue: Air and road temperatures on Wednesday in the 50s or 60s will be accompanied by considerable moisture from a system crossing  the Southeast and heading to the coast. See the projected surface map for 7 AM Thursday. 
  • By Wed evening, an influx of much colder air into the mid-Atlantic states from Arctic High pressure moving into the Great Lakes may convert the moist environment above the region to heavy, wet snow. 
  • This event will be all about THE LINE. Not the freezing line, but the temperature line at 5000 feet as shown above. With 0.50" of liquid yet to move through by 1 AM Thu, upper level temperatures of -4 C to - 8 C from the 95 corridor to interior PA, WV and northern VA would allow rapid development of heavy, wet snow across many metro areas. This could result in low visibility and roads becoming slippery under several hours of snow bursts over many metro and interior areas. 

  • Yearning for a glimmer of hope for just a teensy bit of snow? Your wish is about to be granted. To be fully in the know, we invite you to lock in a full experience in winter intelligence, by becoming an Insider. They knew about this storm two weeks ago, and it's time you should be in on that, right? 


- The FF Winter Stormcast Team

Saturday, January 28, 2017

15 comments:
"And That's The Way It Is...?"

FORECASTER CELINE MAY THINK SNOW THIS WINTER IS DONE. 
WE BELIEVE FANTASTIC SNOW IS STILL LURKING IN THE LONG RANGE. 
(Joining the Insiders will help you know where to find it.)



10:00 AM 1/28 - Long time Powderhounds can tell when we're reading their mind, and we know what you're going through in winters like this. Then again, Spring-a-lings and Coastals are probably candy happy with the way it is so far. For the rest of us...
  • When you want it to snow...there's no easy way out. When you're ready for Pow, but the forecast's in doubt,
  • Don't give up on your sky, because we have a solution if you're willing to try.
  • It's plain to see if we stick together, weather will find a way. 
  • Just don't surrender, because you can win in this thing called snow.

The simple answer? Join the Insiders and receive exclusive access to our inside reports via app email and text updates. Please see our previous report on 1/21 regarding La Nina and it's influence on this winter, and let Forecaster Celine know you aren't willing to accept this season as the way it is.

Short version of what we see? 
  • Temperatures: Surface and upper level conditions over North America are cooling at the right time as we head into February. The ground is becoming refrozen over night to the point that once precipitation occurs, it can easily stick.
  • Precipitation: The southern jet stream is slowly being reactivated as increased moisture transport will begin occuring from the east Pacific into the U.S. in the next 2 weeks. 
  • Snow cover: As clippers cross the Great Lakes, more and more snow squalls are helping rebuild lost snow cover in the Northeast. 
What it all means: Allow this process to continue another 5-10 days, and it's easy to predict much of the Mid-Atlantic will be primed to go powder. Even better, it would be right on schedule during a period in the February calendar already well-known for memorable snow events. 


And THAT'S the way we think it is...


The FF Winter Stormcast Team

Saturday, January 21, 2017

No comments:
Marching through January

WHY COOLER PACIFIC WATERS BRING LESS SNOWY WINTERS, AND WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF A "SNOW DAY" THIS SEASON?


6:00 AM 1/21 - In stark contrast to last year at this time, skiers, students and snow lovers alike face another week to 10 days of non-winter conditions, as a March-like pattern has temporarily replaced traditional January weather. The NOAA 6-10 day temperature outlook below shows no help in sight for those yearning to see just one little snow day. But alas Powderhounds, all is not lost. Looking ahead, there is hope in the red letters.

WHERE DID THE SNOW GO? One year ago, the region was buried under the largest snowstorm in decades, courtesy of an equally powerful El Nino-fueled transport of Pacific moisture. Now, it's the hazy, sullen, fog-filled days that result from the wishy-washy influence of cooler-than-normal east Pacific waters. (Relive the storm in our posts leading up the storm: Tue 1/19, Wed 1/20. Thu 1/21, Fri 1/22. The comments also a fun look back.)

For the normal snow addict, It's a very strange and frustrating pattern indeed but one we have come to expect would happen. We are all dealing with the consequences of the old rule that "what goes up" (the 2016 El Nino of +2.3 C) has turned into the "must come down" Nina of -0.5 C). 

THE SHORT ANSWER is simply that when sea surface temperatures of the East Pacific start the winter at a level slightly cooler than normal, this influences the overall pattern in adjacent land surfaces. The climate cannot support the west AND east BOTH being cold at the same time, so if they get it first, we get the scraps. If you want snow, you're on the wrong side of the coast right now!


SO, THE NEXT SNOW DAY IS...? The most efficient way to access our specific projections is to join the Insiders for 2017. You get straight-on reports without fluff or social media distraction, specialized alerts and early AM update via the Insider App, plus text notifications before / during major events. It's a lot of valuable info for a very nominal fee and it's one way of supporting our operations. Image left: Results of all those calories we all burned last winter, captured in this reader photo from College Park, MD


Friday, January 13, 2017

5 comments:
Wintry Weekend Ahead
  • NWS FORECASTS AND COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC FROM EARLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
  • SIGNIFICANT TO MAJOR ICE STORM IS LIKELY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH SUNDAY.

Light freezing rain in the daybreak hours of Sunday, January 18, 2015 led to this 20-car pileup in New York City and hundreds of other precipitation-related accidents throughout the region. Image credit: New York Post.

Widespread ice storm expected from Midwest to southern Plains



Projected U.S. surface map for 7 AM EST Saturday by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center shows a large area of potential ice accretion is possible to likely from northern Texas through the southern Great Lakes states to the Mid-Atlantic. 


  • READERS MAY RECALL IN 2015, ON THE SUNDAY BEFORE MARTIN LUTHER KING DAY, A RELATIVELY MINOR GLAZING OF ICE (LESS THAN 0.01") CAUSED SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR FROM WASHINGTON TO NEW YORK. (Example: 1/18/15 articles by WTOP and New York Post.)
  • HOURLY FORECAST CHART FOR BEL AIR, MD IS A REPRESENTATIVE LOCATION FOR PROJECTED PRECIPITATION HAZARDS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. PAST EVENT SHOW THAT EVEN LOW PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WHERE ROADS ARE UNTREATED. 



Projected surface map for 7 AM ET Saturday 1/14



Saturday, January 7, 2017

Southern Storms & Northern Air

6 comments:
Southern Storms & Northern Air
  • HEAVY SNOW FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO EASTERN VIRGINIA,  THE VA/MD EASTERN SHORE AND SOUTHERN MD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY, 6" OR MORE IN MANY AREAS SOUTH OF DOVER, DE TO ST. MARY'S MD TO RICHMOND AND NORFOLK. See Wakefield VA NWS 1/7 Snow Briefing
  • FROM DC METRO NORTH TO BALTIMORE AND PHILADELPHIA, DRY AIR ON A NORTH WIND HAS BEEN IMPEDING SATURATION OF AIR, DELAYING ONSET OF SNOW UNTIL MID-MORNING SATURDAY. 
  • AREAS WHERE SNOWFALL HAS BEEN DELAYED BY DRY AIR CAN EXPECT UP TO 1 INCH BEFORE SYSTEM BEGINS PULLING NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
  • ROGUE BANDS OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN & EASTERN PA MAY PRODUCE AN UNEXPECTED 1 INCH OR MORE ON SATURDAY .




NWS WINTER WEATHER MAP SUITE
To locate these resources, click on your local NWS office site and scroll down to the icon titled "Winter Weather" that looks like this image.



CENTRAL & SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA

BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON REGION

SOUTHEAST PA & DELMARVA PENINSULA

EASTERN VIRGINIA TO NORTH CAROLINA






Monday, January 2, 2017

Help is almost here.

20 comments:
Help is almost here.
  • WHITE IN THE WINTER NIGHT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR WV AND WA, REACHING I-95 CORRIDOR BY 8 PM. SNOW OVERNIGHT OF 1" OR MORE BETWEEN PA/MD LINE & DC METRO
  • CRITICAL END-POINT TIMING OF SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL INFLUENCE HOW FRIDAY AM COMMUTE PLAYS OUT. PREPARE FOR DELAYS AS EVEN LIGHT AMOUNTS WILL PRODUCE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
  • A WEEK OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIKE THIS ACROSS THE U.S., FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC AIR MAY LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN STATES  STARTING AFTER JANUARY 15.

4:00 AM ET 1/5 - It's time to move your snow plans into action. Although tonight's event for the Mid-Atlantic is not slated to produce major impact, for portions of our region the actual timing of the snowfall will be problematic for the Friday AM commute. This will include most of the MD Eastern shore and the I-66 to I-70 corridors & I-95 corridors. Main issues next 24 hours:

  • Two moisture sources = better snow chances. Two disturbances moving quickly toward the region will interact for a 12 hour period from 4 PM tonight to 4 AM Friday. The first is an upper level disturbance streaking east from the central plains. The second will be a developing coastal Low near the Carolinas.
  • How much snow? Not much, but very fine grained. The intensity of upper level cold was reported by NWS office in the west to allow this system a snow-to-liquid ratio of nearly 40 to 1! If you are a snow science enthusiast, that is like John Madden's Ultra Winter Fantasy Football. You try the math! Even just 0.05" of snow with a 30:1 ratio aloft could easily produce 1.5" at the surface. 
  • Fine flakes mean road war. This type of snow gets in every crack, nook and cranny of road surfaces because the extremely fine grained nature of the snow allows it to adhere instantly and quickly create a slick, thin sheen upon contact. With temperatures not slated to rise about 32 F for  most of the region west of the I-95 corridor until at least 12 PM, improvement in road conditions may not occur until late morning.   
  • What about timing? An NWS Hourly Weather Chart for Eldersburg, MD below is a representative location for the overall impact we believe will be observed from DC metro and the 270 corridor to eastern WV -- to central MD and southern PA.

HOW MUCH, WHERE AND WHEN? Snow maps from the Winter Weather sections at the Sterling VA NWS (Baltimore/Washington) and the Philadelphia/Mt. Holly NWS below:


Sunday, January 1, 2017

No comments:

*App-only Insider Special to 12/31/17*
Winter Services - Foot's Forecast, LLC

Monday, December 19, 2016

Welcoming Winter

3 comments:
Welcoming Winter with Cool & Calm
MAP IS FOR FRIDAY 12/23:
BLUE H'S IN THE EAST MEAN RELATIVELY DRY, CALM CONDITIONS
5:00 AM EST 12/19 - After a raucous weekend of freezing rain, cold winds, heavy rain and practically the whole kitchen sink thrown at us, it is a pleasure to announce a tranquil start to this week that officially welcomes winter!
  • Cool temperatures and dry conditions expected throughout the region as we head toward the holiday weekend.
  • If you are looking for some hope of snow out there.. the best we can do is a chance of brief snow showers Thursday night (sorry but that would be after school has ended for the day...)

The good news is, at least travelers in the Eastern U.S. will not have to contend with weather hindering their journeys on Friday 12/23 and into Christmas Eve. High pressure will build into the region with colder temperatures but should stay free of storms into Christmas Day for most of us.
Our warm and grateful wishes to all readers for a safe, incident free week ahead and quiet days for wherever the holidays take you. 

- From all of us at the FF Team.




Thursday, December 15, 2016

13 comments:
Saturday: Kitchen Sink Weather
Sunday: ServPro Weather
  • WINTER STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL MD, NORTHERN VA AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN WV FROM 12 AM SAT TO 12 PM SAT 12/17. 
  • Surface map projection for 7 AM Saturday indicates snow has turned to sleet & freezing rain, and will overspread the region until late morning, then begin changing to rain.

NWS Hourly Weather Chart for Owings Mills MD is a representative location 
for the kitchen sink potpurri of precip that starts by Friday evening area wide. 


  • By Saturday afternoon, all precip has turned to rain south of Interstate 76. 
  • On Sunday, temps rise to near 50 F-- forcing us to say that it will be like Saturday's snow and ice "never even happened." 
  • Monday? Let's just say the game is a-foot and we'll have more details in the PM update.

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

No comments:

Winter Services - Foot's Forecast, LLC
Winter Services - Foot's Forecast, LLC

Monday, December 12, 2016

7 comments:
Serious cold...then weekend storm?
Overview of short- and long-term winter hazards  

  • JANUARY-LIKE CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY 12/18. With the exception of Monday 12/12, PM highs barely crossing 40 F into midweek. HIGHS dropping to the 20s end of the week, AM lows in single digit to teens by Thursday AM. 
  • CURRENT COLD PERIOD RESEMBLES WEEK PRIOR TO DEC 19, 2009. This was the first major snow event of 2009-10 season in the Mid-Atlantic. Click link for a look-back at what our team said before the storm.
  • STORM TARGET PERIOD 12/15 TO 12/19 is next time frame we project conditions will become favorable for significant snow accumulation from the I-81 corridor to the I-95 corridor.

Does this mean a major storm is brewing?





Not immediately, but surface conditions are becoming favorable in the short term:
  • One essential ingredient needed to permit accumulating snowfall in the I-95 corridor and adjacent areas is falling into place: A solid week of serious cold in advance of any approaching storms, whether coastals or clippers. 
  • If snow cover develops throughout Pennsylvania, Ohio and areas on north, and snow cover is added in the metro areas this week, the chances for a significant event begin to rise.

The difference between winter 2016-17 and last winter, or 2009-10:
  • This season, the influence of El Nino and it's associated moisture influx from the Pacific is absent from the indicators. 
  • Instead, U.S. weather is now being strongly influenced by a La Nina- driven pattern where the Pacific sea surface temperatures have cooled dramatically from last year at this time. 
  • The rapid cooling of surface waters induces ridge of High pressure over the western U.S., and in turn drives a Low pressure trough in the Eastern U.S. 
  • Learn more about La Nina's effect on U.S. weather patterns at this NOAA site.








Results of this La Nina so far? You are seeing it now:  

  • An Arctic front blasting through the Midwest heading east, dropping quick amounts of snow -- not crippling but happening fast enough to cause serious disruption.
  • For the metros & coast: Long periods of cold, dry, windy weather. Not much rain. But when it does rain, there are deluges-- but only for 1 day.
  • For areas bordering the Great Lakes:  Higher than normal rainfall and snowfall due to the warm waters being tapped by passing fronts.
  • For everyone east of the Rockies: Reduced snow cover until only just this week due to less moisture available to produce snow. 
Tell me there is some hope, please.

Yes Virginia, there is always hope. Once snow cover establishes in the northern and central U.S., and a period of cold controls the East, the stage will be set for any coastal or clipper storms to "over-perform" and be provided the conditions necessary to generate potentially significant snow in the next 2 weeks. 

We shall be watching as we are certain many teachers & powderhounds will be also...


Latest snow cover from the NOAA National Ice Center



Eastern Powderhounds are yearning to see just a little bit. 
How much longer must they wait?

Sunday, November 20, 2016

1 comment:
Pre-Season Insider's Peek 

This winter, we invite you to be among the first who receive our 
advance weather intel via updates by app, text and email. 
Consider joining the Powderhound Insiders!

Below: Sample screens from the Insider's app of the 2015-16 season.



Friday, October 14, 2016

What about Winter?

2 comments:
What About Winter? 

Part Two - October Indicators 



1) Arctic Sea ice: Slow to rebound from late September melt-off, and seasonal refreeze levels currently lagging behind levels seen before recent winters of 2014 and 2015. Researchers and bloggers alike have noted the unusual nature of this season's sea ice melt and rebound.


2) Snowcover in adjacent areas has rapidly expanded in western and central Siberia to northern & central Canada, relative to seasonal averages. Snowcover is clearly lagging in Alaska as compared to seasonal norms and observations from previous years at mid-October.

3) Polar temperatures: Seasonal readings above 80 North reported by the Danish Meteorological Institute are running several degrees above the seasonal range for this time of year. 

OUR EARLY ASSESSMENT OF WHAT IT MEANS: 
  • Early clues: Arctic/Polar conditions in October provide early indications of how climate factors may interact to influence the start of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, and North America,.
  • Strange days ahead: This season follows an above-normal temperature regime from last winter for the Arctic above 80 North. Now with sea ice lagging but snowcover rising in areas farther south than usual, these competing data point suggest a divergent and erratic start to winter.
  • Possible results:  This inconsistent alignment of ice & snow could lead to wildly fluctuating conditions in early winter. One option would be an early season sharp cold outbreak, then a rapid warm up, followed by equally strong cool downs and erratic snowfall events that briefly disrupt, then quickly disappear.


Part One - Clues from Summer


Finally, as the heat takes a break, we can get the winter forecast gears warmed up with this question: How many school closing curveballs and schedule shutouts could happen this winter? Science students and the FF team are on the case. 

The preliminary report begins below the bullet summary:

  • The above normal temperature pattern in East, connected to growing below normal pattern in West, may be early sign this winter could start like 2015-16: Mild first half, stormy and cold second half.
  • Seasonal melt-off of Arctic sea ice appears on level with readings of the past 3 years, not as low as the September 2012 record meltoff.
  • Rapid transition of El Nino to La Nina conditions sets stage for surprise ice events throughout the season ahead, especially in the Mid-Atlantic.
Orioles Opening Day in April 2003. Photo credit: The Baltimore Sun

ANALYZING SUMMER CLUES FOR THE PRE-WINTER PATTERN

Late summer in the Foot's Forecast team is the start of our seasonal process to identify how pre-winter indicators stand so as to detect developing trends. Large scale hemispheric trends known to influence how winter develops in the Mid-Atlantic include frequency and location of tropical systems, sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific and end-of-summer Arctic sea ice meltoff. 

In September 2016, this investigation will be conducted by science students at several high schools in the Baltimore metropolitan area, in collaboration with member of our team across the Mid-Atlantic. Initial findings released arround September 15, draft projections by October 1, full winter assessment by October 30.

Click below if ready for a sneak peek...

Tuesday, October 4, 2016

1 comment:
MAJOR MATTHEW TARGETS SOUTHEAST COAST
  • SURGE OF 10-15 FEET, RAINFALL OF 15-25 INCHES OR MORE LIKELY IN HAITI, EASTERN CUBAN & THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THURSDAY AM.
  • LARGE SWELLS & DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST & MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON IMPACT SCENARIOS IN PROGRESS. 





RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH MON 10/10


Thursday, September 8, 2016

2 comments:
A special opportunity for you.


While the weather is calm for now, we are excited to announce this special news! If you or those you know are house hunting in Baltimore County, Maryland, the FF family home in Dundalk, MD was recently listed on the market for sale. 

We are thrilled to share this big step and invite an online sneak peek at what has been such a blessing and gem to us. If interested in further details or to arrange a visit, please feel welcome to contact the listing agent directly. 
SLIDE SHOW | MLS # BC9730684 PDF FLYER | AGENT WEBSITE
Harris Weingrad, RE/MAX Allegiance: h.m.w.@me.com
                             1720 Wisconsin Ave NW WashingtonDC  20007                        
Cell 202.569.1600 | Office 202.338.8900


Friday, September 2, 2016

1 comment:
Weathering the weekend 
with Tropical Storm Hermine



6:00 AM Fri 9/2 - Weekend plans at the shore? Hosting an outdoor activity? You WILL need a Plan B, we guarantee it.
The expected track of now-Tropical Storm Hermine this weekend has prompted Tropical Storm Watches to be posted for the entire Mid-Atlantic coastline from:

* Virginia Beach and the Southern Chesapeake Bay to Smith Point;
* the Atlantic coasts of Maryland and Delaware,
* the New Jersey coast to Sandy Hook.

The current Advisory and Track map from the NOAA National Hurricane Center. The Tropical Storm Watches are shown in yellow below.




Period of highest impacts in these areas at this point will be Saturday morning through Sunday evening, including winds of 40 mph or greater for the coastline, rainfall of 2-4" and tidal flooding. Waves along the MD and DE coast of 10-12 feet are possible by Saturday afternoon. 

An hourly weather chart for Ocean City, MD as one example reveals just how nasty conditions will be through Sunday. Top line is wind gusts -- near 50 mph for 12+ hours!

Full details on specific impacts for different areas across the region:
For areas west of the Chesapeake Bay including the Baltimore-Washington metro area, currently we expect impacts from Hermine will include:

  • Winds of 15-25 mph Sat into Sun AM;
  • Occasional rain of less than 1.0" 
  • Tides about 1 foot above normal

This storm will remain a complex and evolving situation through the weekend impacting all of us in many ways. It is possible the storm may slow down by Monday and even move back toward the coast -- requiring major changes to current forecasts.
We will effort to keep you advised as information becomes available. Please continue monitoring your local NWS office websites for the most current advisories at http://www.weather.gov

-Foot's Forecast Tropical Team