Sunday, October 8, 2017

A Return To Normalcy? Not For A While.
  • RAIN RELIEF IS NATE'S FATE: Remnant moisture and wind from T.S. Nate overspreading the eastern third of the U.S. will reinforce the summer-like pattern seen in these areas since late September. The upside will be a welcome relief of rain to many dry areas baked in the recent warmth. See below for 7-day precipitation projections.
  • TEMPS STAY WARM: Long range temperature indicators show above normal temperatures for the mid-south, mid-Atlantic and northeast should continue through much of October.
  • BERMUDA HIGH HOLDING: As shown in the steering currents image from University of Wisconsin, the clockwise spin of air in the west Atlantic is maintaining a moist, tropical hold on the eastern U.S. while allowing Nate to fuel the fire even more with an infusion of fresh Gulf moisture into the pattern.

7-day rainfall projections from NOAA

What it all means?
Expect a warm, wet pattern through mid-October, returning to dry and windy toward end of the month. Unless of course the Gulf sends along another hurricane. 

Saturday, September 23, 2017

1 comment:
"How do you solve a problem like Maria?"
- from Maria in the Sound of Music

  • WESTWARD SHIFT: Computer model trends past 24 hours are depicting a significant westward shift in Maria's track toward North Carolina's Outer Banks. 
  • CONE OF UNCERTAINTY: The National Hurricane Center's official track has also moved notably west, from solutions earlier this week that were all out to sea.
  • EXPANDED EFFECTS: A strong and large but slowly weakening tropical system results in an expansion of the wind field. A wider area will experience tropical-storm force winds than if the storm was very strong with a tightly-compacted wind core.
  • IMPACTS FOR MID-ATLANTIC COAST? Coastal communities from South Carolina to New Jersey will experience 72+ hours of large and increasing swells, persistent onshore easterly winds, water levels rising with each tide cycle and probable flooding in low-lying areas. 

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Jose Surprise?
  • ATLANTIC WANDERER JOSE, ONCE A CATEGORY 4, now looping in the Bermuda Triangle before expected to turn toward the Southeast coast this weekend.
  • Long range show that a high pressure ridge over E Canada & northeast could move into North Atlantic late next weekend. Ensemble models below largely depict an out to sea solution.
  • Development of a deeper trough in western U.S. same time period could either nudge Jose away from land, or help create a channel with the ridge, driving the storm northwest. 
  • We will continue monitoring for indications for / or against this scenario.