Sunday, January 28, 2018

Long summer = long winter

"A long summer always meant a long winter to come."
from A Song of Fire And Ice, Game of Thrones: Volume 1
- by George R.R. Martin

Image credit: DeviantArt - the Battle of Winterfell in Game of Thrones
While some enjoyed this January , the powers of Deep Winter are quietly but assuredly marshaling their forces in preparation for a second invasion. The ice on our rivers and lakes has broken and melted away, and snow cover has shrunk from its 50-state conquest earlier in the month.  Here in the dead middle of winter, has the season of powder hoisted the white flag? 

As the Chinese writer and strategist Sun Tzu once said, “Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.”  This apparent weakness in the pattern may be a clever ruse to lull you into doubting if there's any more out there. We believe winter's biggest battle is still yet to come.

Above: A long range generalized projection by the European model of mean (average) snowfall potential through February 25, due to an expected second Arctic blast arriving in early February. 

This map is also only one of four events depicted as occurring in the 30 day period from January 30 to March 2. What it means? Cold and wind took led the charge in the season's first half. Now ice and snow look to finish strong in the second half. The opening volley launches this Tuesday to Friday.
The when, where and how to be addressed in our next post later today.

Friday, December 15, 2017

The last time this happened

The last time this happened...
(in 2007) it did not end well.

5:30 AM Fri 12/15 - Winter Weather Advisories are posted for portions of the DC-Baltimore-Philadelphia metro regions starting at 1 PM. 

With road, air and upper level temperatures all in cold tandem, it is highly probable that any precipitation this afternoon in these regions will:
  • Fall as fine-grained snowflakes and freeze on contact with the surface;
  • Produce slippery road conditions within 30-60 mins of snow onset;
  • Cause widespread hazards during the afternoon and evening commute;

Today may be the first time since February 2007 the Baltimore region faces a decision on whether to wait for "ground truth" or pre-empt the weather with pre-announcements on the afternoon schedule. We were there for that event, and it did not go well for anyone reading this page. The comments from 10 years ago tell the story.

GFS model precip projection for 7 PM tonight.

Solutions over problems
or as Luke Skywalker has said,
"this (winter) is not going to go the way you think!"

image credit:

Sunday, October 29, 2017

Why Can Autumn Tell Us About Winter?

Recent weather patterns across North America may signal
how winter begins in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. 

7:50 AM 10/29 - Part One of our story is to unpack how large scale influencing events in the past month may be setting in motion a pattern for first half of winter. 

Looking for something more intriguing and original? You'll have to read on to discover Part Two. We are introducing findings by high school student investigators who have uncovered surprising connections about the secrets winter has in store for us. 

PART ONE: To set the story, a look back at October:  

1) The long periods of above normal warmth in the west, evidenced by the widespread devastating wildfires that were preceded by 100 F+ temps in San Francisco;

2) The hard freeze in the central plains and deep south, with freeze warnings as far as central Alabama his weekend;

3) Prolonged warm and dry conditions in the East, interrupted by occasional cool spells.

Temperature-wise, the past month has played out a lot like what the next month is projected to do, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's 3-4 week experimental outlook. The scenario we see unfolding as we turn the page to November: