Friday, August 13, 2004

Friday 8/13 evening update:

CHARLEY WILL REMAIN A HURRICANE ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST

Latest computer model wind speed estimates show Charley re-emerging in the Florida Atlantic Coast by late Friday night with winds over 75 mph.

Then it will be able to maintain or increase before striking the border of NC/SC Saturday afternoon. It will be at the minimum a Category 1 storm with winds between 75 and 90 mph.

Saturday evening and overnight, what will be Tropical Storm Charley will move on a line from east of Raleigh-Durham, to between Richmond and Norfolk, bisecting the Chesapeake Bay around the Potomac River. Winds in these areas will range from 30-60 mph. Rainfall may be in excess of 4 inches, causing tidal and urban flooding.

Tides in the southern bay will be 3-4 feet above normal, and 2-3 feet above normal in the northern Bay. Combine this with torrential rain coming on a high tide and a new moon... well, you know. It'll be wet. Suffice to say, heavy rain and gusty winds will be the rule for the entire Bay area from 3pm Saturday until the early morning hours.

Sunday morning, Charley is expected to be a minimal tropical storm as it reaches southern New Jersey and then on to New York City by the afternoon.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect from Smith Point on the Chesapeake Bay on south. Coastal Flood Watches remain for the rest of the Bay.

This is the latest projected track by the National Hurricane Center:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0304W+GIF/132116W.gif

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