Tuesday, February 19, 2008

WILL A SHORT WEEK BE EVEN SHORTER?

TUE 2/19 10:00 PM. For those of you in the school system, whether students, parents or teachers, the answer is MOST LIKELY YES. Since we are approaching the onset of this 2-3 day event, I have condensed the main ideas down to just a basic overview. If you need more detail, scroll down below this post for the analysis from this past weekend.


THE WEEK AHEAD: A clipper arrives Wednesday afternoon in the Baltimore Metro area, but most likely late enough in the day to affect evening traffic more than closing schools early. This system may produce accumulations similar to that of the Dec 5 storm which caused a 2 hour delay the next day in many school districts. There could be 1-2" across the region by early Thursday morning, prompting another round of delays. The second event will be a series of weak Low pressure systems moving toward the Mid-Atlantic from Thursday night through Saturday morning. Given that snow, sleet and freezing rain are projected starting Thursday night, it is becoming increasingly likely this will interfere with the school schedule on Friday.

THE BREAKDOWN:

WHEN? First round arrives Wednesday afternoon in the Baltimore Metro region and may produce up to 2" before departing late evening. Slick roads may cause schools delays Thursday morning. Second round moves in Thursday night and continuing through Saturday morning, total period accumulation for the DC-Baltimore Metro region by Friday morning could near 4" which includes 1/2" or more of sleet/freezing rain.

WORST PART? Well that's hard to say because it ALL looks bad for commuters. Friday morning is likely to be the most difficult travel period of the week.

HOW LONG? Majority of precipitation will exit the region by Saturday afternoon, and may even change to rain Friday afternoon before it does.

WHAT ABOUT SCHOOL? I suspect delays Thursday morning, and many schools closed Friday across the region from Virginia to Maryland to southeastern PA and New Jersey.

QUESTIONS ABOUT THE STORM SITUATION POSED BY READERS

1. Why isn't this going to be a coastal storm and give a lot of precip to the mid Atlantic?
Highly unlikely the current setup will result in a single coastal storm like Jan 22, 1987 or Dec 4-5, 2002 to name a few. Too much upper level energy spread over a large area is going to prevent any one Low pressure system from wrapping up all that energy and turning into a classic Nor'easter. The high is not projected to be in the best spot for that anyway. The best comparison could very well end up being the Valentine's Day Massacre of 2007, where some areas of the Mid-Atlantic got near equal amounts of snow AND sleet/freezing rain. There will be a lot of precip, but along I-95 and north/west of the cities, it is likely to be a kitchen sink storm.. snow over to ice and maybe even back over to snow before ending Saturday. Adding the variable of ice always cuts down on snow accumulations, but precip there will be for sure.

2. In the 03 storm the temps were becomming marginal for snow or ice and it snowed. Could it be anything like 03 and a huge suprise to everyone?
I just came across an intriguing map posted on the Eastern US Weather Forums, and I'll post it here for you to see shortly. It's all about the high. In that situation the high was clearly sliding over the Great Lakes and into southeast Canada. Not so this time, though the models are having trouble dealing with where that high is going to place Thu and Fri. Secondly, the air mass coming is cold, but not super incredibly such. I remember here in bayside Baltimore County it was 17 F and snowing teensy tiny little crystals. I had never seen such heavy snow at such temperatures in the coastal plain. The high that's coming may give us a day in the low 30's with overnights in the 20's...comparatively way warmer than the Feb 03 storm. The surprise could be in the prolonged period of icing that may develop Friday into Saturday.


3. If an arctic air mass is coming down then wouldn't that create lots of cold air damming to take place?
There is already deep concern about the cold air damming signature that's developed on some computer models for Thursday into Saturday. Even though a higher sun angle this time of year might negate some of the storm's effects by warming cloud tops, incoming solar radiation warming roads and parking lots...there is still going to be plenty of cold air to keep the ground cold. It's already arrived in force, for Monday at noon in Dundalk I observed 75 F while we were having lunch on our deck, and now at 9:30 PM it has dropped to 42 F. I think NWS offices are picking up on the potential for a major ice storm to follow the first round of snow, and you'll see this reflected in Special Weather Statements starting to fly by Wednesday morning with Winter Storm Watches posted by Wednesday night.

75 comments:

Tom said...

It's going to be an interesting week ahead. Hopefully you guys get in on Wednesday's clipper as well as that might be a better threat for all snow!

emsays said...

I have a question, what time on Wednesday will the snow be arriving? I have a make up basketball game and was wondering if I should be thinking that after school activities will be cancelled.

Mr. Foot said...

I'm not totally confident Wed PM activities will be disrupted, but that storm will definitely be a Nowcast situation. I was going with a Wed night arrival because the dry air iin place by then will evaporate out a lot of what falls so it never reaches the ground until late afternoon/early evening, and then is just light and intermittent. A few bursts could bring out totals up to 2" like we saw Dec 5 or Jan 17.

A delay Thursday is more likely, and I'm increasingly confident Friday will be a slam dunk.

Did want to say thanks to Mr. TQ for the good followup and sites he posted in the last set of comments. Am digesting that and will make that public for all to see.

snow lover said...

I really appreciate you answering the questions that many of us have. I have a feeling this will be a great storm!! Mr foot you said that this could be like the valentines storm of last year. I recieved 6 inches of sleet.

Kyle said...

Thanks for the answers and updates. It is most appreciated. And yes, I am also refreshing this page like an addict needing a fix... But I'm thinking this storm will have some surprises, just like today's extra warm weather was a bit of a surprise. An ice storm would be interesting for sure, but I know how dangerous those things are and kinda feel guilty about hoping for such a thing. Let the surprises begin!!

Grant said...

I hoe everything goes through Mr.Foot, i'll see you in homeroom tomorrow.

Mr. B said...

I am really not putting to much into this one just yet.

emsays said...

I admit, it is hard to get in to this storm, especially since all of the meteorologists are saying there is little or no snow this week. I really want to see a nice coating of white on the ground, but I sure hope I am not getting my hopes up for nothing!

terpguy said...

19 Feb
0633 local

Justin Burke, channel 2:

1" of snow Wednesday
Winter Storm Friday??


I think he's the first local meteo to use the "S" word...

...the plot thickens more..

snow lover said...

Just just look at what the storm prediction center has. It is pretty good

terpguy said...

As of 0800 local, my burg (20 miles N of downtown Baltimore)

from websites

TWC-
Friday "light wintery mix"

ACHOOWx-
Th- "periods of snow and sleet"
F-"on and off snow"

NWS-
"Thursday- A chance of snow and sleet, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Friday: A chance of snow, freezing rain and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 50%."

13 (CBS)-
Th- Cloudy with a chance of snow and sleet. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

F-Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.

11 (NBC)-??
Website is a mish-mash of ads, and not very user-friendly
Th- 60% rain/snow
F-40% snow

2 (ABC)
Th-mostly cloudy with flurries
F-cloudy

Let the games begin!!

E.H. Boston said...

Mr. Foot, this seems like old times..yesterday the models were going mad around SNE with a widespread 10-15" of snow on the 18z GFS. Today they have backed away and many are now keeping the heaviest of QPF well south of my region. I think that the models may push the heaviest of QPF even further south and then I'm sitting here, what happened?

Then, we start to see this thing come further and further north and I am going, wait a second! Feb '03 is one example and one that rings true is Jan. 22, 2005. Some of our best storms occur when we think this won't phase until its too late.

I think there is too much good vibes going with this storm to keep it a light snow maker. In fact, but the end of today, I wouldn't be surprised if it showed moderate to heavy accumulating snow from near BWI to NYC, trending towards BOS. Just my gut instinct...no scientific analysis.

snow lover said...

Hey mr. Foot got any updates. And it looks like it will be colder then usual.

snow lover said...

I just looked at the storm prediction center and it looks as if the temps are good and snow is in the forecast!!! I don't know about anyone else but I am getting excited :)

Kyle said...

I've checked many of the discussions from around the region and all agree that this "is a complicated system" and that it's quite "unsettled." I love that kind of talk concerning storms, it leaves room for good (and yes, bad) surprises. Some also kept hinting at a coastal low pressure and the possibility of another storm riding in here early next week. It seems like the European model is increasingly becoming the 'loner' in its results (which is good, 'cause it looks least promising). I'm looking forward to your next update Mr. Foot.

CMS Teach said...

Exactly where is the Storm Prediction Center? Thanks.

ANDY Southern York County, PA said...

Will take a wait and see approach. Euro has been more relaible this year overall. But time will tell. I'm not excited about this one, but I'll keep an open mind. My general guess is the best we'll do is 6 inches by Saturday am with some sleet. That 6 inches will include sleet/ice and anything from the clipper. Areas north my fair a little better, and areas south of Baltimore City worse. This is an unscientific guess cast of course.

Mr. B said...

Euro has come on board. Ok I am on ship!

Anonymous said...

:::sigh::: my daffodils are poking out of the ground.. I just want ONE good snow before spring..

snow lover said...

mr b what do you mean by that. And for the SPC go to spc.noaa.gov it is a good site

Mr. Foot said...

Home from school now, not much time for an update until later tonight.. not before 9PM anyway.
Will be refining the site presentation and forecast but not much changes.

Still on board for Wed PM clipper, Thu PM arrival of main event and Friday slam dunk for school.

Thanks to EH, Mr. B, Terpguy, Andy and others for providing the ongoing updates and comments during the day. Helps to have other sets of eyes watching when I'm not available.

Terp... was great of you to do that roundup of B'more TV 4casters.

I don't know that the Euro's problem is, am discounting it for now. Has vascillated by over 500 miles on placement of some of the Lows in just 2 days.

Joe Bastardi of AccuWx is leaning towards 3-6" for DC-NYC, don't know why he is excluding ice potential.

Am sticking with a total of 4" for the entire period Wed PM - Fri PM. That includes sleet/ fz rain.

Please post any reports you can from evening news, twill be interesting to see where they are tonight on this.

Julee said...

Interesting day in the Hereford Zone.
Sun.
Then clouds.
Then snow.
Then sun.
Then sun AND snow.
YAY!

This a.m. His Bassness said flurries tomorrow (so trivial he could barely get the word out) and just had a cloud icon for Friday. So if we could get 2 inches tomorrow and 7 inches on Friday, I'd be happy.

snow lover said...

mr foot where did you get bastardis forecast

Mr. Foot said...

I pay 14.95 a month to get all the same data he has, along with his 4casts.

Mr. Foot said...

Side note.. I made my calls on this storm well before he did, not to say I'm better than him, just to point out I had my analyses done before he started on his.

Anonymous said...

WJZ mentioned 28 degree difference from yesterday... not a lot of moisture for tomorrow's fast moving clipper - a coating to an inch ..

a mix of snow/rain and uncertainty with the THURS night event... could be "a bigger mess"..

snow lover said...

thnx mr foot.

terpguy said...

Your NWS- 1617 local: (DC/B'more)

SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER LOW THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE NORTH OF WASHINGTON DC. LOCALLY TWO INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY WILL BE REQUIRED WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

Mr. Foot said...

6:15 PM ABC2 News Stormin' Norman

"Icy problems Friday"
mentioned that twice.

Was non-committal overall, just discussed various periods of snow tomorrow night then again Thursday night. Be back after 9PM

terpguy said...

1845 local

Stormin' Norman-Ch 2
Wed- 1/2' of snow (N & W)
Fri- Freezing rain

Turk-Ch 13
Wed Rain/snow mix
Fr-snow/IP to rain

Ch 11 (web)
Wed- 50% chance of snow showers
Th/Fri-Snow, IP, ZR "likely"

...and so we wait..

CMS Teach said...

From the NWS

654 PM EST TUE FEB 19 2008

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLIPPER. AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BALTIMORE WASHINGTON METRO AREA...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RUSH HOUR.

WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE WAVES MAY LEAD TO A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

photofreak65 said...

Well....I'm finding all of this very interesting. You all really know where and how to hunt for this info. I don't always understand exactly what you are saying......but if you keep saying that frozen precip is coming, I'm happy. I Keep the folks updated in my school, that is those that I have not turned onto this site yet. When I go in to do my volunteer work, this site is a major topic of discussion. I'm always asked, "so...what is your guy saying?" So, It sounds like our school bingo could be cancelled Friday nihgt.

terpguy said...

Dear pf65-
1930 local

Since Mr. Foot is playing with his little-bitties, I'd like to take the opportunity to welcome you.
(if someone hasn't already)

There are literally dozens of websites available for free that give great data and forecasts that are light-years beyond the guy/gal on the tube.

You've found a great one here.

I think we may have a connection, in that I taught photography for over 20 years.

Keep tuning in...

Anonymous said...

I think I am wearing the F5 off the key!!

:)

TQ said...

Time sensitive. Valid until 0400 Wednesday

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_composite.gif

DC / BWI
10% - 40% chc for at least 4" snow

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfhsd.html

"CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT REINFORCES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS LEADS TO A WELL DEFINED COLD AIR
DAMMING EPISODE WHERE SUB-FREEZING SFC AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS PRODUCING THETA-E ADVECTION FROM 850 MB ON UP OVER
THE DOME OF COLD AIR. THIS SETS UP THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
CHANGING TO SLEET AND THEN FREEZING RAIN FROM THE MID MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC.
AN AREA OF SNOW SHOULD PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER IN THE DEEPER COLD
AIR IN PA/SOUTHEAST NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND.[...]MODEL DIFFERENCES
PERSIST...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF MIXED
SNOW/ICE DEVELOPING AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW LEAVES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ACRS THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MID MS VALLEY.

weathertracker said...

Mr. Foot one item of interest to discuss would be the full moon and the phase we are in. How the full moon can help with the development of a coastal storms. Last week was the first time on your site. Great job setting this up! I look forward to more interaction.

Grant said...

So is this a good thing or a bad thing for a snow lover?

snow lover said...

good because a snow lover is a winter lover in my book

snow lover said...

TQ what day was that for explain.

TQ said...

The quoted discussion applies to Friday.

TQ said...

<.caveat> The off-hour model runs are essentially useless...but during the off-hours...that/s all that/s available. <./caveat>

Based on 18z model forecast soundings...

NAM: BWI gets a brief period of snow early Friday afternoon...followed by at least 9 hours of freezing rain.

GFS: BWI gets ~6" snow over 9 hours beginning early Friday morning...ending before noon; then freezing drizzle until early evening with precipitation ending as a brief period of snow accumulating another inch.

It/s this inconsistency between numerical weather prediction model solutions that leads to the use of 'complex system' and 'wintry precipitation' weasel words in NWS forecast discussions.

Mr. B said...

GFS bufkit at 18z had 7" for hgr, and no ice. I am thinking c-2" from clipper then 2-4" with weekend storm with possible .10-.20" ice.

JB talking a 93 analog with big storm possible around the 1st. Ya ok JB!! 93 was el nino not la nina.

snow lover said...

this sounds great it is gonna be a good storm all we need is foots forecast

snow lover said...

the clipper on the radar looks pretty impresive with some dark blue on north side

Kyle said...

Wow! Where did this ~6 for BWI come from all of the sudden?? The alternative being 9 hours of freezing rain? Both of those seem considerably higher than previous predictions. Also, where does the Euro fall into this? And Mr. b, while a 93 analogy might be off, isn't there still potential for significant low pressure system coming next week? Or was that the storm after next? Sorry for the questions...getting excited.

snow lover said...

we have so much to look forward to I love winter

Mr. Foot said...

I'm back. Bible study Tuesday nights. After all, God did make snow, but Mr. B is right, would be a true miracle were a Mar 93 storm to repeat next week. (Now don't get excited everyone, it's just climatology-speak. Nothing to see here, please move on.)

Special thanks to TQ for providing that recap of the recent model runs. I am a bit amazed I guess that GFS extrapolation would indicate upwards of 6" The HPC analysis quite interesting, as if they've finally caught on to the reality of cold air damming. I know those folks work very hard at what they do and must find it monotonous at times.

TQ I hope you don't mind me making it clear to the folks here it is a great privilege to have a meteorologist on board with us. (On board in the sense of participanting in the discussion group). I hope you find our environment welcoming, respectful and a tad enjoyable.

I have to look over latest data and NWS reports. Will try to post something on or before 10PM and then off to bed.

Mr. Foot said...

The clipper will be a nowcast event, because we'd have to see if the precip makes it over the Blue Ridge. Not to squelch enthusiasm, but dark blues now out there may not mean dark blues here tomorrow.

PriceW said...

do u think we will get out of school early tomrrow?

Mr. Foot said...

TQ: If you're there, have you seen Tip's writeup on the D8 PNA situation? If not you should take a look. It appears there is a great disturbance in the force (wrt the ensembles).

I could even hear the Imperial March playing in the background while reading it.

Grant said...

Doubt it lol !

Mr. Foot said...

Well, pricew..the last time I said, with a bold headline... "YOU'RE NOT GETTING OUT EARLY!" We did. So I'm going to say this time I highly doubt it, but if anything it would only be 1 hour early, though I'm very much not expecting that.

Kyle said...

Actually, I was going to ask about the PNA. Isn't this high PNA abnormal? It's the highest its been the whole year. What does that mean exactly?

Kyle said...

Well, all season anyway... and Mr. Foot...the "disturbance in the force" better mean drastically more snow....

weathertracker said...

Mr. Foot,

The 21z SREF has increase the amount of snow over Maryland.
We may being seeing a trend as we
get within 48 hours of the storm.
I always watch the SREF Model closer as we get with 2 days of the storm. Thanks...

snow lover said...

I have been thinking from the begginong that this one would suprise and secretly I bet we all thought that.

Kyle said...

I'm with you snow lover...definitely. The experts' silence is telling indeed :-)

TQ said...

'Tip' is oft times nigh impossible to read. D+8 awaits another day. Let/s first get past FRI.

BTW...none too impressed with Clipper IYBY. PVA is next to nothing. Flow never 'backs' in advance of the short-wave/s passage...such that there/s little forcing (lift; upward vertical motion).

As for comments wondering where did 6" come from...remember..1) that value was based on off-hour model runs...which are notoriously poor and 2) BWI was in the 'sweet spot' on the northern edge of the precip shield.

What the model explicitly depicts today is only an general idea of what might happen come FRI. That/s why forecasters should avoid issuing accumulation forecasts outside 24 hours of snowfall/s onset.

Mr. B said...

New Nam its quickly becoming my favorite model.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/index.shtml

Old nam is horrible! Has it even been right once this winter. yeeshh.

snow lover said...

Yeah and mr foot when you said that the clipper could be like the one from december I hope so because I got 5 inches

Mr. Foot said...

Before everyone starts IM'ing their friends on myspace to say, BALTIMORE'S GETTING 6 INCHES!! Keep in mind what Mr. TQ said, that was one model run based on incomplete data and is only a general indicator, not a lock on the accumulation.

weathertracker..welcome to the group and I hope you will join the hallowed halls of our long time (and fun!) discussion community. Some have been here since 04. The main focus is usually just winter precip events and tropical systems that would affect the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. The other 6 months of the year, the site is essentially dormant..as our busy time is Dec-Mar and Aug-Oct.

Regardless this will be a great storm to track, even if it does not deliver the high accumulations you all hope for.

As Santa Tom Hanks said in the Polar Express when talking to one of the boys visiting the north pole: "Young man, patience."

I will have to find/look at the SREF. TQ did say the other day is a good indicator once you're inside the event period window.

Mr. Foot said...

That's all the mental energy I have for the day. Signing off and will be back bright and early tomorrow, shortly after 5AM to digest the overnight model runs. You can check before heading to school/work for a morning update.
Peace and sweet dreams of snow until then.

Chip said...

Sweet dreams, Mr. Foot, and thanks for all of your observations and expertise! In other news, am I being picky, or is it pretty lame that Achoo-Weather doesn't have any new maps since the ones at 2:26 pm? I guess I'm spoiled by all the great and happening info at this site! Awaiting further developments with interest!

snow lover said...

it is interesting to see the comments from the begginong ideas and see how they develop and this might be the longest chain of comments. And one observation for he winter is that storms look good then bad then they either have no chance or a little and when they have any chance they have really come through. The chances have been few and far between but this one WILL be a good one.
so everyone just ponder those comments.

Kyle said...

Here's hoping tomorrow will bring a big snowy surprise.

TQ said...

SREF (short range ensemble forecast) is a bunch of NAMs initialized with slightly different conditions...then averaged...whereas the operational NAM could be considered one member of the multi-member ensemble.

As the the PNA question: In general...the PNA index is a measure of 500 mb 'heights' at four locations [(20N,160W), 45N,165W), (55N,115W), and (30N,85W)].

PNA reference graphic:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ssaha/indices/pna_load.gif

When the index is positive...such as it is now and will be for at least a week...there/s a high-amplitude ridge out West and a deep trof here in the East.

The western ridge delivers cold air from NW Canada into the eastern half of the US. The eastern trof spawns LOW pressure areas off the coast of South Carolina / Georgia / Cape Hatteras

The high amplitude flow regime is favorable for LOW pressure systems to track up the east coast as nor'easters and dump school bus-loads of snow IYBY.

Mr.S said...

Well Mr. Foot I'm going to be interested to see what happens. A few inches on Thurs into Fri would be NICE! I have some plans to head out of town this Saturday (South Jersey Area). I REALLY would like to go. So I hate to say this, but "I hope the accumulation is minimum!" Although an early dismissal on Wed or delay on Thurs would be welcomed!

snow lover said...

so my question remains why won't this be a coastal storm and dump 6-8 inches

snow lover said...

And are we gonna have multiple storms

E.H. Boston said...

Wow...just had a WICKED squall come through the Boston area...deposited a quick 1/4", whitening the barren ground and roads...

It was about 20 mins of moderate snow with 6 mins of visibility down under 300 feet. WICKED...and a preview of things to come???

Mrs. Burke said...

Okay ..... so I am pretty excited about this "storm" on Thursday through Friday. I would really be happy to go in late and leave early Thursday. Our 3rd quarter is short enough, why not make it shorter?

What again are the predictions for March? I know I was supposed to ignore a previously made comment. However, I am intrigued by the words - like March 1993 - I was off for a week. It was my 9th birthday, and you could only walk on my road - no driving! How I would love to see my dog try to traverse through that!

I knew I should have taught earth or environmental science! Oh well, on with Social Studies and economics!

Mrs. Burke said...

Just found this while I was searching the internet, and I thought it was interesting. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/Historic_Events/md-winter.html

Personally, I always thought that the blizzard of 96 was the worst storm during my lifetime. However, I was mistaken by the storm that occurred in 2003. I was in school at Mount St. Mary's, and we actually went to school 3 days out of that week, while all of the other colleges were shut down for the entire week.

Well, I hope we can get another snow like that again. I really enjoy that - I think that kind of snow brings out the kid in everyone. Especially if you are forced to be at home!

E.H. Boston said...

FOLKS, the 00z GFS is wonderful...I'm going for 1-2" tomorrow night with the clipper for you guys in the MA north of DC.

00z GFS IDEAS

Then you will get I'd say 1-4" with the weekend deal in DC-BWI

Further north into PA, including PHI-CNJ...I'm thinking 3-6" before any changeover.

NE PA to NYC...looks like mainly snow to light freezing drizzle with likely 4-8"

And then you get to SNE and just south of the Pike, you would have amounts of over 12" with very fluffy snow. BOS would probably be closer to 6-10".

This is taking the 00z GFS verbatim...looking good for just about everyone.

weathertracker said...

Mr. Foot,

It looks like the fun and games will continue in March. If you get a chance take a look @ Canadian and USA Ensembles for day 7 and 8.
The #1 Anlog for both ensembles are
the same. To say it looks interesting is a understatement. The clipper has came in and did its job ( cold air ). It has set the stage for the next winter storm coming tomorrow night. I still have not brought into a mid-storm changeover yet. IT may take longer. I believe it will change back to snow before it ends. I will be watching the modeling very closely tomorrow. Thanks...

weathertracker said...

It is 7:30 pm and light snow is falling in Harford County. That not unusually but, what is.. how bright and clearly you can see the moon. Just a reminder. Lunar Elclipse tonight starting 10:01 pm.
It will be clear enough. The next one is in two years. Thanks...