Friday, December 28, 2012

Who's Ready For More Powder?!

8:30 PM EST 12/28/12 
(Winter Stormcast Team Statement)  For those heading to ski resorts this weekend, you nailed it. Our team sees that a moderate snow event remains likely for much of the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. 

Full details in our statement below: 




  • This storm will be weaker than the midweek storm we just experienced with only nuisance to moderate snows expected. The snow will affect many major metropolitan areas including Pittsburgh, Washington DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New York City. Majority of the region will see mainly snow, except when you go south of Washington DC. 
  • A few changes have been made since our earlier update, including increasing some snow totals. It does seem cold air across Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Maryland Panhandle, and west portions of Virginia will lead to higher than normal snow ratios of nearly 15in of snow to 1 in of liquid. This leads us to believe that this area will see 3-5in of snow in general on Saturday. 
TIMING: Snow should begin shortly after midnight Friday night in Maryland, early morning in Pennsylvania, and New Jersey/New York around mid-morning. The event will only last about 6-8 hours in each region as it moves out of MD mid-afternoon, Pennsylvania/New York late-afternoon, and New Jersey during the early evening hours. 

SNOW AMOUNTS - BY OUR FORECAST ZONES
Three Rivers: 2-4"
Central PA & Northeast 3-5"
Potomac Ridge & Valley: 2-5"
Southeast PA: 3-5" 
Central NJ: 2-4" 
North Central MD: 2-4"
South Central MD: 1-2"
Capital Region D.C. MD: C-2" 
Southern MD: C-1"

IMPACTS: Travelers heading on long weekend vacations will be impacted if they try to leave Saturday. If at all possible we advise leaving Friday, or waiting until Sunday. Temperatures will be sub-freezing to just above freezing in most areas leading to some snow covered roads and icy conditions on roads that snow melts. Expect travel to be difficult during the morning and afternoon Saturday, especially on roads where melted snow refreezes. Conditions may begin improving by the evening, especially in southern areas where the snow moves out early in the afternoon. 

Lead Writer: Winter Stormcast Director Zach Fasnacht.
Contributors: Forecasters Connor M., Greg J., Jason M., Rich Foot, Keith K., Jason I.

For Ski Resorts...Every Little Bit Helps


8:00 AM EST 12/28/12 
(Winter Stormcast Team Statement) All eyes now turn to the next snow event, which is set to move along a similar path as the Christmas & Boxer Day Storm earlier this week. NWS Winter Weather Advisories have begun their march from south to north, with snow in the Southern Plains and Midwest today, arriving in Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. 

But for powderhounds and ski resorts alike, this is the snow event you've been waiting to see! Looking to take advantage of the snow on the slopes? We think the resort winners from this system will be Snowshoe, Hidden ValleySeven Springs and Wisp. Whitetail in southern PA may even jump into the fray. Additional updates for this system will be posted in our Mid-Atlantic Winter Stormcast Page. 


SUMMARY: Though a weaker storm than the 12/24-26 system, many areas of the mid-Atlantic are likely to see accumulating snow, including Washington, Baltimore, and Philadelphia - as well as the WV panhandle, central & southern PA, and much of MD. The exceptions will be south of Washington DC where a mix to rain is expected.



TIMING: Snow should begin around sunrise Saturday in Maryland, around mid-morning in Pennsylvania, and New Jersey/New York around noon. The event will only last about 12 hours as it moves out of MD mid-afternoon, Pennsylvania/New York around sunset, and New Jersey during the late evening hours. 



SNOW AMOUNTS - BY OUR FORECAST ZONES

  • PENNSYLVANIA: Three Rivers: 2-4" | Central PA & Northeast 1-3" | Southeast PA: 2-4" 
  • WEST VIRGINIA-MD: Potomac Ridge & Valley: 2-5"
  • MARYLAND: Central MD & Capital Region: 1-3" / Southern MD: 1-2"

IMPACTS: Travelers heading on long weekend vacations will be impacted if they try to leave Saturday. If at all possible we advise leaving Friday, or early Sat AM. Temperatures will be sub-freezing to just above freezing in most areas leading to some snow covered roads and icy conditions on roads that snow melts. Expect travel to be difficult through the day Saturday, especially on roads where melted snow refreezes.

NEXT UPDATE: Posted after 11 AM Friday 12/28

WRITER: Winter Stormcast Director Zach Fasnacht; CONTRIBUTORS: Forecasters Connor M., Jason M., Jason I., Mr. Foot

RESOURCES:

22 comments:

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

The SREF (short range ensemble forecast) have trended wetter. I think the system will trend slightly wetter than forecast initially by the models. I like the 3-6 forecast for our region. Winter weather advisory will be extended south of current locations along the Mason Dixon line.

Annapolis area 1-2 wet snow some mixing
Bel Air area 3 inches some spots higher to the north west of town
BWI area 2-3 inches
Towson area 3 inches
Hereford 3-4 inches
Westminster, Manchester, Herford, Parkton 4-5 (isolated totals maybe higher in bands and elevation)
York, PA region 4-5 isolated 6 possible in elevation and bands

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Thia storm is still trending wetter and colder. I like what I see.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

There could be totals of 4 plus around the Beltway if temps keep trending cooler and the storm comes in juicier as indications are pointing to that.

NeedaSnowday said...

I knew I should have bought that snowball-maker-launcher!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

This is a solid 3-6 inches across the region. I think "someone" might see an isolated 7. The trends are much wetter and it may continue to trend that way. Temps are trending colder so there will be better ratios. I am seeing Euro qpf output ranging from .35-.45. Some areas north of the cities will have 15:1 ratios. Using these numbers I could see a total of 6.75 inches somewhere nearby if the numbers are correct. No model can say where banding sets up etc., so I see someone reporting a 7 inch total.

Amy said...

Wiz just said little to no accumulation for Anne arundel county. I'm going with Andy's prediction. I know the water will keep me from getting as much as those inland (I'm in Pasadena) but no accumulation just isn't an option.

BioPat said...

Andy, you are usually right in the ballpark and Justin Burke is also seeing similar numbers. Today's warmth was a bit deceptive to tomorrow's pending snowfall.
As for me, I'll take the high road and pick up a couple items at the grocery store this evening for our dinner party tomorrow.

ravensbbr said...

Andy, looks like I was wrong re: the forecast. Thankfully. :-)

Looking down the pipe, are we settling into this pattern for awhile, or are we still in for the predicted Jan warmup?




ravensbbr said...

And..nothing.

Coastal low too far south now, dry air intruding?

The Wivells said...

Don't think so. Looks to be right on schedule.

"TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 5 AM AND 8 AM...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE ENDING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON."

Snow has started here in Westminster with a dusting on the ground already.

NeedaSnowday said...

Snow hole...... nooooooooooo!

ravensbbr said...

Large, large, large dry air slot and low dewpoints...

Wish this blog let me post this surface analysis of no less then 4 lows coming together.

Still think it might be a bust, hope to be wrong.


Amy said...

I'm beginning to think the blizzard year has colored my outlook on how much snow we get here in MD. Not a flake in sight, but being on the eastern edges, snow might still be in the offing. Trying not to hold my breath.

NeedaSnowday said...

Ok... not gonna lie, but if this busts and I get my snow on Jan 3/4 time frame I will be ecstatic!

DT (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAxd1mNUeXw) calling for potential but it looks more south than our general area...

::fingers crossed::

ravensbbr said...

Need, I hear ya, I also have an event I'm dying to get out of around that timeframe via a weather excuse. Or an alien invasion or just about any other reason...

NeedaSnowday said...

Yea, but hoping just until 4th is over.. sitting in M&T for Wildcard weekend with the elements isnt prime option for me, but...wait, how will Luck handle it?? :-)

ravensbbr said...

GFS model is now showing dry slot splitting storm right up the I-95 corridor for the duration...

ravensbbr said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
ravensbbr said...

Luck having to play in snow would be great to watch after the comforts of Lucas Oil Stadium...

Do we know when we play next weekend yet?

NeedaSnowday said...

now getting some flakes falling...

No news on game times/date yet....

NeedaSnowday said...

I think JB just re-tweeted you BBR!!

ravensbbr said...

Just saw it, that was very cool of him to do so!