Thursday, March 20, 2014

SKYFALL?

SKYFALL?

12:10 PM EDT 3/21 UPDATE
POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM COULD AFFECT
 MID-ATLANTIC & NE COASTAL AREAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
Extrapolation from European, NOAA Extended Forecast Discussion & 6-10 Day Analogs

In the latest James Bond action thriller, when 007 and M return to the Scotland estate of his boyhood home, he knows well his surroundings (and the weather) as when he was a child. Long trained in special operations, the agent's cunning awareness can detect the finest hint of changes to come, and not just in the local climate. 

In the video clip, 007 portends to M with brutal simplicity a fate neither they, nor us, can avoid... if long range projections about next week continue unfolding in a manner most certainly not Spring-like

If you are prepared for the next briefing, which may end as unexpected and shocking as the final scene in Skyfall, read to the next section.


MULTIPLE COMPUTER PROJECTIONS POINT TO A SCENARIO RESEMBLING MID-MARCH 1993 DEVELOPING ALONG MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK

BRIEFING AS OF 1700 UTC 21 MAR 14 (1200 PM EDT)

WHAT WE KNOW TODAY
  • As we approach the 5-day mark before "storm operations" would commence, we can reveal that both the European and GFS have been pointing to an extremely intense cyclone "bombing" off the Mid-Atlantic & Northeast coast by Tuesday night. Were this outcome to occur, it could reach a central pressure more characteristic of a Category 3 hurricane, at 970 mb as it departs northeast.
  • Liquid projections range from a relatively tame 0.50 - 0.75 to as much as 2.00" in some of the European model member. Of the 51 total members of the European suite, at least 21 members can be aggregated to suggest a mean of 6"+ for Washington DC by Wednesday morning. That said, another 30 members show lesser impact, so the scenarios at play can be summarized as "all or nothing."
  • While the origins of this storm are thousands of miles apart,  the upper level flow is in a "Cross-Polar" Pattern, which will drive large masses of cold air directly southeast into the northern and eastern U.S., overridden by a Spring-like pattern of frontal moisture streaming northeast from the Gulf of Mexico. 
WHAT WE KNEW YESTERDAY...007 style


  • Deep and extensive snow cover across Canada is allowing Arctic Highs to maintain extreme cold in traveling south from Polar regions. Several large and powerful Highs will infiltrate the U.S. in multiple locations, and unleash a multi-day attack of cold not unlike January conditions for the period 24 through 28 March.
  • European and US computer operatives, whose exact identities remain classified for security reasons, have for several days now been depicting a variety of coastal outcomes that produce snow and wind along much of the East coast. This in combination with above-normal precipitation for both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day projections, suggests that additional oversight is will be needed for even the most trained agents.
  • Latest weather intelligence sources, using remote analysis technology provided by F, indicate that several systems of interest are expected to travel in a southeast direction from northern Canada, starting Sunday. Canadian authorities have been tracking these systems since early in the week. By Monday, the suspects may be moving through the Upper Midwest. If sufficient decryption of non-state actor dossiers can occur in time, it is believed by the Department there will be a second infiltration coming from the southern U.S. starting on Tuesday.
  • Due to concern for maintaining public calm (and securing agent identity), it is recommended that further mention of large scale geographical extent of the potential outcomes for Wednesday be restricted only to the highest security officials, pending confirmation of TS/SCI clearances by the appropriate authority. 
DISCLOSURE NOTICE: Should this information be disclosed to unfavorable parties, the Secretary will disavow all knowledge. The next briefing on this situation is expected by 09 UTC 21 MAR 14.

FF10
Weather Security Department

27 comments:

CerpherJoe said...

Unless F has developed a time machine, your UTC time should be adjusted for DST.

Nonetheless, I get the picture!

Mr. Foot said...

Mr. Cerpher Joe: Due to the sensitive nature of briefings on the matter, we can only respond at this time by saying UTC is 5 hours ahead of EDT.

;-)

Westsidehideaway said...

The next storm will be ....Shaken, not Stirred.

ravensbbr said...

"The name's Schtorm. Schnow Schtorm."

(To be read in extreme Connery-esque Scottish accent)

ravensbbr said...

Hats off to Agent F, very creative briefing!!! :)

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Been busier than Gary Busey's liver after an open bar function at an international drug lords ranch party and product sampling event.

The January 84th threat for this Tuesday looks VERY interesting!
There have been some positive shifts with respect to a pronounced albeit nuanced northwest trend with the low for Tuesday.

Tons of details to sort out, so at this lead time all we can say is that there is a chance.

A chance for what? What is the worst case scenario? Two feet of wind driven paste!

Late season juicy gulf moisture meets mid winter style POLAR air, then BOOM!

Everyone is in the game and MARCH storms can surprise. The rates and cold with the last storm were impressive.

The general idea I had for the last storm was more or less solid for north of Baltimore Metro, but the amazing tenacity of the arctic air and precip rates south totally blew me out of the water with the power of the system so late in the season. The storm delivered little north of the Mason Dixon line due to the strength of the cold and confluence.

I expect that the cold will be ample, and so will steamy gulf moisture.

If they all come together this has the POTENTIAL to be HUGE.

I am watching and waiting so time will tell. March snow forecasts are brutally tough especially this late in the season at our latitude, but this one has some EXPLOSIVE potential. We will know if it is a beast or a bum by Sunday. Saturday should give us a much better idea which way things are heading.

As of today though, if you like snow the trend has been your friend!

STAY TUNED!

Unknown said...

Thanks for the update Andy! I agree the trend has been very good today for powderhounds, especially those 12z euro ensemble runs!

Westsidehideaway said...

Girl: Are you looking for winter storms?

Bond: No, just looking.

BioPat said...

Sounds like fun this weekend as we watch and plan!!

ravensbbr said...

Turns out Warren Buffett no longer owes me a billion dollars. Thanks for nothing, Dayton.

Oh well, back to guessing at the weather. :-p

MAW said...

Can't to see the "movie" in 5 days...I hope it is a blockbuster!

MAW said...

Oops. ..can't wait


Westsidehideaway said...

Hi Mr. Foot and All. I love the Bond theme for the thread. But maybe we should shift to a March Madness theme. Considering all the variables for the storm, and the tourney, it may make a better theme. Like Ravensbbr said, Way to go Dayton!!

Tina said...

Am finally getting back into my home routine, open Foot's as part of that routine and promptly read "Been busier than Gary Busey's liver after an open bar function at an international drug lords ranch party and product sampling event."

It prompts a feeling of the warm fuzzies that some things have remained "normal."

My husband has now planted 2,003 vegetable "cubes", or whatever one calls single sections of a flat, in the green house. I told him about the possibility of major snow... he hates snow to begin with and thought April Fool's had come a bit early. Meanwhile, the pups and I are waiting and watching, hoping for one last snow-romp!!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1253 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014

VALID 12Z MON MAR 24 2014 - 12Z FRI MAR 28 2014


...NOR'EASTER BOMB INDICATED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...


WITH THE REESTABLISHMENT OF CROSS-POLAR FLOW INTO NORTH AMERICA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BAROCLINICITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE.
THE LATE-MARCH SUN CONTINUES TO WARM AREAS SOUTH OF THE POLAR
FRONT, WITH THE INFUSION OF NEARLY UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. THIS THERMAL CONTRAST IS, OF COURSE, PART
AND PARCEL OF THE JET STREAM, WHICH IN TURN PROVIDES THE
BACKGROUND ENERGY FOR THE PERTURBATIONS WENDING THROUGH THE FLOW.
SOME OF THE DEEPEST EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES IN MODERN
RECORD-KEEPING HAVE AFFECTED THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES DURING
THE MONTH OF MARCH--THEIR GENESIS AFFORDED BY THE MONTH'S NATURAL
BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY.

ONCE SUCH PERTURBATION IS PROGGED TO GROW VIGOROUSLY AS IT LIFTS
UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING, THEN BOMB OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE JET STRENGTHENS VIA AN
INJECTION OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE MIDWEST. MANY MODELS--INCLUDING
THE 00Z/21 GFS--DEEPEN THE OCEAN STORM BELOW 970MB NEAR THE
ATLANTIC BENCHMARK OF 40N/70W WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THIS
PARTICULAR SET OF MANUAL PROGS, RELIED ON THE MOST RECENT ECENS
MEAN FOR A BEARING, SINCE NOT ALL THE GUIDANCE WAS YET ON THE SAME
PAGE WITH THE PARTICULARS OF THE CYCLONE. THE ECENS MEAN HAS SHOWN
HIGH SKILL AT THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH SURFACE PRESSURES, AND SEEMS
TO OFTEN ARRIVE AT A STABLE SOLUTION A DAY OR SO SOONER THAN MUCH
OF THE OTHER GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

THE EAST-COAST CYCLONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LATE-SEASON
HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER A WIDE SWATH OF REAL ESTATE FROM VIRGINIA TO
NEW ENGLAND; THAT IS A GENERALITY AT THIS POINT. MUCH REMAINS IN
TERMS OF REFINING THE FORECAST STATE BY STATE. ANOTHER HIGH-IMPACT
FACTOR WILL BE THE POWERFUL WINDS GENERATED BY THIS SPRAWLING,
INTENSE CIRCULATION, ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS, BEACH BATTERY, COASTAL
FLOODING, AND SO FORTH. AGAIN, AT THIS POINT, SUCH SENSIBLE
WEATHER EFFECTS ARE SIMPLY ATTENDANT TO THE POTENTIAL OF SUCH A
STORM.

THE WEST WILL BE A TALE OF TWO REGIONS, WITH THE SOUTHWEST
CONTINUING A HIGH-N-DRY STREAK, AND THE NORTHWEST BACK IN THE
THICK OF ONSHORE FLOW. UNTIL THE OVERALL PATTERN RELAXES OR
RESHUFFLES, WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET IN THE WEST.


CISCO

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

NWS BALT WASH:

Model guidance continues to show an upper shortwave trough that
is currently just south of the Aleutians to dive southeastward across the
intermountain west late this weekend. Phasing may eventually occur
between this system and a weak sub-tropical disturbance near the northern
Gulf Coast as they both approach the eastern Seaboard Tuesday into Wednesday. Surface
lopres is expected to develop off the southeast coast during this
time. There is still questions regarding the track this low
takes...which ties into how quickly the systems phase. The latest
00z global models provided increasing support an offshore low
track...which would to spare the middle-Atlantic region from another
significant late season snow storm. Tend to favor this general
scenario given the progressive look to the synoptic pattern with a
lack of downstream blocking over Hudson Bay region and the upstream
ridge that flattens over The Rockies. Note these systems are still
located in areas with poor observational data coverage...which leads
to less skill in the models due to initialization errors and plenty
of opportunity for the forecast to change.

Loosend said...

I asked for 8" with the last storm and it was provided. Now I ask for 18" given the amount of potential liquid and then we can proceed to Spring and Summer. : ) Seriously though, if this one does crank up, it looks like the beaches may pay a heavy toll from erosion.

Tess said...

Please let this winter go out with a bang. A big bang.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Models do not have all of the information yet, but the flow continues to look more progressive. If I had to lean I would lean to a low to no impact event for this region on Tuesday. We will know for certain which way this storm is heading come Saturday afternoon. If we do not see some major shifts west by then early next week will be chilly, but March will go out like a lamb! The track has been amazingly consistent to an offshore storm, if it looks that way Saturday I will say:

HAPPY SPRING!

Mr. Foot said...

Spring greetings all! One idea for our next theme, which will signal our successful avoidance of the coastal storm if that scenario begins unfolding:

"All we want is life beyond the Thunderdome"

Thoughts? Or alternate suggestions to address the temporary return to winter-like conditions regardless of the storm.

NeedaSnowday said...

Do not feed the fish!!!

BioPat said...

Happy Spring All and Happy Friday! As much as many of us are looking for another snowfall this one may evade us. It appears the storm will stay OTS and provide some coastal damage with high surf and winds as it whips by Mid-Atlantic on its way to create a major event in New England. Of course that's the view or now so as the storm moves onto the west coast in the next 30 hours or so we'll have a better read on its course.

Butch Dynomite said...

Two lows enter.....

Westsidehideaway said...

Well. Bummer Man. Everyone is predicting the storm pushing out to sea.

ravensbbr said...

Dangit.

Tina said...

Butch, that was pretty funny...

I wonder if we'll get decent (meaning "any") snow near the coast? Regardless, this is gonna be a FABulous day!!

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

I am not predicting the storm to push out to sea!

Models have developed the system and continue to show it not being a major impact to this area because of an easterly track in a strong progressive flow. That is just the models though. We all know as better data is sampled we will have a better picture.

GARBAGE IN GARBAGE OUT! Well not exactly, BUT: sparse incomplete data sets with a dynamic system with many moving parts does not equal a confident forecast this far out. MODELS CAN AND WILL SHIFT!

MODELS ARE NOT FORECASTS. They are merely representations of the current sampling of the atmosphere, extrapolated out to provide a final solution. As the variables that are ingested into the models change so will the final outcomes that they portray.

A 968 MB system this time of year is almost unheard of and if it fails to track as currently portrayed look out!

Let's see how this evolves. Euro last night ticked WEST again, so there was not a continuance of the east trend.

We are tracking a MONSTER that MAY go out to SEA, but no guarantee of that at this point!